China trade data for July: Exports +19.3% y/y (expected +20.8%) & Imports +28.1% y/y (expected +33.0%)

In USD terms China’s Trade balance for July was $56.58 bln

  • vs. expected $51.54bn, prior was $51.5bn

Exports +19.3% y/y for a small miss on the median consensus estimate

  • expected +20.8% y/y, prior +32.2%

Imports +28.1% y/y, also a miss

  • expected +33.0% y/y, prior was +36.7% 

 China’s trade surplus with the United States ( Reuters calculation)

  • $35.4 bn in July ($32.58 bn in June) 

As background to July’s data China’s economy has staged an impressive rebound since about mid-2020. July saw cases of the Delta variant of COVID-19 increasing, a trend that has continued into this month – many cities in the more industrial south and east have been impacted. Lockdowns and travel restrictions are a negative for business growth, and July was also impacted by floods and other bad weather.

Add in:

  • the ongoing semiconductor shortage
  • raw material (inputs to the production process) supply tightness, and higher raw material costs
  • logistics bottlenecks and high freight costs

We’ve had the round of most recent PMIs from China released earlier this month, those for manufacturing a pointing to a perhaps slower path ahead while those for services are better.

Manufacturing 50.3 in July 

  • expected 50.8
  • previous 50.9

Non-manufacturing 53.3 in July 

  • expected 53.3
  • previous 53.5

Private survey PMIs:

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