The USD started the day as the weakest of the major currencies. That is no longer the case as stronger data has set the yield racing to the upside. The 2 year yield is now up 14 basis points while the 10 year is up 12.6 basis points.
The USD is making new highs for the day versus the GBP, JPY, CHF, CAD, AUD and NZD and near the high vs the EUR as well (just a few pips). IN doing so, technical bias’s are shifting.
- EURUSD: The EURUSD moved up and tested the 200-hour moving average 1.09006 just before the stronger ADP report. The price moved below the 100-hour moving average 1.08887, and when the correction stalled right at the 100-hour MA, the sellers showed their willingness to keep control. The price has moved to a low of 1.0834 which is just above the low for the day at 1.0833. The 100-day moving average comes in at 1.0826. The 50% midpoint of the move up from the May 31 low comes in at 1.08229. Buyers may look to lean against the dual levels, but with stops on a break below.
- USDJPY: The USDJPY is trading back above its 100-hour moving average 144.442. The high price reached 144.648. Swing highs between 144.65 and 144.73 are the next short-term targets to get to and through. More importantly technically, is that the price stays above the 100-hour moving average at 144.442 (and certainly above the 200-hour moving average at 144.265).
- GBPUSD: The GBPUSD has now moved below the 100 hour moving average at 1.27029, and the 200 hour moving average 1.26915. A swing area between 1.2681 and 1.26988 has also been breached tilting the bias more to the downside. The moving averages are now risk defining levels. Stay below is more bearish. On the downside, the low for the week at 1.2657 is the next target followed by the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the May 25 low comes and at 1.26413.
- USDCAD: The USDCAD rebroke above the 38.2% at 1.33213. That retracement level was broken earlier but rotated back to the downside. The move lower reached just above the natural support at 1.3300 (at 1.3302) before moving back to the upside. The current hourly bar has a low right at the 38.2% retracement indicative of buying interest. Staying above that level keeps the buyers fully in control and represents a risk level in the short term. Stay above is more bullish. On the top side the 50% midpoint at 1.33848 is the next major target.