RBA Minutes: Board considered 25 bprate hike or holding steady and reconsidering at later meeting

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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) published the Minutes of its June monetary policy meeting, citing that “board considered rate rise of 25bp or holding steady and reconsidering at later meeting.”

Additional takeaways

Arguments were “finely balanced” but board decided case for immediate hike was stronger.

Hike would provide greater confidence inflation would return to target over “reasonable” timeframe.

Balance of risks to inflation had shifted to the upside since May meeting.

Longer inflation remained above target more risk inflation expectations would rise.

Service price inflation not easing as yet, goods disinflation less than in some other countries.

Planned increases in electricity prices and high rents added to inflation risks.

Risk wages and prices could become implicitly indexed to past high inflation.

Productivity disappointing and needed to pick up to offset wage increases.

Fair work increase in wages higher than expected, public wage awards also rising.

Rebound in house prices if sustained implied less drag on consumption than first expected.

Signs consumer spending slowing further in q2, some households under significant financial pressure.

Lags in policy meant risk past tightening could lead to sharper economic slowdown.

Falls in commodity, shipping prices could lessen inflation pressure.

Board to closely monitor household spending, financial stress.

Board reaffirmed willingness to do what was necessary to bring inflation to target.

Market reaction

On the Minutes release, AUD/USD is dropping toward 0.6800, currently trading at 0.6830, down 0.22% on the day.

FX

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