Big job losses to come?
The lockdowns started in July and there is currently little hope that they’re end any time soon. NSW reported record cases yesterday and Victoria hit a record today.
The consensus for today’s jobs report, which is due at the bottom of the hour:
- Employment -46.2K jobs (estimates from -90K to +20K)
- Unemployment rate 5.0% from 4.9% prior
- Participation rate 66.0% vs 66.2% prior
The final thing we’ll be watching is the skew in full/part-time employment. In June, full time jobs were up 51.6K compared to 29..1K total job gains (part-time jobs declined).
The highest estimate for Aussie jobs comes from Westpac:
Westpac expects a 20k lift in July employment, with
Sydney’s lockdown-lite restrictions reflecting more pressure on hours
worked. The ABS Weekly Payrolls fell 2.4% in the two weeks to 17 July,
compared to a revised -0.2% for fortnight ending 3 July. Payrolls are
not seasonally adjusted; they measure only people paid in the week so
those working zero hours but still employed are not counted. Our +20k
forecast in the official survey is a flat print in original terms. With
flat participation (WBC f/c: 66.2%), this would see the unemployment rate edge down to 4.8%.
The Australian dollar is vulnerable at the moment as it tests the lows of the year on a number of fronts, particularly AUD/USD and AUD/JPY.