At some point there’s no more bad news.
The UK has cycled through governments, seen the central bank panic-buy bonds and stumbled through a near-death experience in the bond market.
As the market crawled through that swamp over the past month, something happened: A series of higher lows.
Late last week as the US dollar surged, that looked like it could come undone but it’s ripped higher for the past two days, further underscoring the trend.
That’s not to say all is good. The 300 pip rally in the past two trading days only brings it back to Wednesday’s levels and it would take nearly another 150 pips to get above the October highs. I also worry about the economic impact of the coming austerity and spending cuts, to be revealed on November 17.
Finally, all European trades depend on weather this year and how cold the winter will be. So far forecasts are promising but the weather is the weather.