Goldman Sachs on the US economy – more aggressive Fed, higher unemployment, lower growth

A Goldman Sachs note from later Friday (info via Reuters) has analysts at the bank making more pessimistic forecasts ahead due to a more aggressive Federal Reserve tightening policy through the rest of this year:

  • “higher rates path combined with recent tightening in financial conditions implies a somewhat worse outlook for growth and employment next year”

Goldman Sachs have revised their projection for next week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. GS expects the FOMC to hike 75 basis points, up from 50 basis points previously.

  • sees 50 bp hike in November
  • sees 50 bp hike in December
  • sees the fed funds rate peaking at 4-4.25% by the end of 2022

Economic forecasts:

  • sees GDP growth of 1.1% in 2023 (down from its preivous tip of 1.5% growth from the fourth quarter of 2022 to the end of 2023).
  • unemployment rate at 3.7% by the end of 2022 (from prior call of 3.6%), to 4.1% by the end of 2023 (from 3.8%)

Sep, Nov, & Dec dates below:


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