OPEC+ meet this week. 400K barrel increase likely to remain, but some prospect of more.

An energy analyst at KPMG says OPEC+ is most likely to stick with the earlier agreed top plan of a 400,000 barrel per day increase.

But the group may ponder increasing the amount “marginally, or more substantially,”

  • by 600,000 barrels to 1 million barrels per day

Countering the argument OPEC+ may consider boosting output above 400k barrels are reports over the weekend (vai Bloomberg) that the OPEC+ Joint Technical Committee (JTC) significantly downgraded expectations of a market deficit at their meeting last week:

  • now expects the oil market to show a deficit of just 300,000 barrels per day in Q4, down from initial expectations of a 1.1m bpd deficit
  • The role of the JTC is to monitor the market, the JTC meets ahead of every ministerial meeting of OPEC+. The JTC met last Thursday. 

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, OPEC+, hold their monthly ministerial meeting on Thursday.  

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