US July import prices +0.3% m/m vs +0.6% exp

Highlights of the US import/export price data

  • US July import prices +10.2% y/y vs +9.3% expected
  • Prior was +11.2% y/y
  • Import prices +0.3% m/m vs +0.6% exp (prior +1.0% m/m)
  • Export prices +17.2 % y/y vs +15.9% prior
  • Prior export prices y/y +16.8%
  • Export prices m/m +1.3% vs +0.8% expected (prior +1.2% m/m)

The headline here is a bit deceptive because three of the four readings are beats and fairly significant ones. These numbers don’t flow through cleanly to CPI but they are certainly pressures. Steel prices, for instance, are making new highs and that takes some time to work through the supply chain.

At the same time, energy isn’t going to be the same kind of tailwind that it was. Excluding petroleum, import prices were up just 0.1% m/m and 6.8% y/y.

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