US leading index for the month of September -0.4% vs -0.3% estimate

The US leading index for the month of September shows:

US leading indicators signals likelihood of recession

  • Leading index fell -0.4% vs. -0.3%
  • prior month was revised to 0.0% from -0.3% previously reported
  • index comes in at 115.9 after remaining unchanged in August
  • the index is down 2.8% over six-month period from March to September 2022. That is a reversal from its 1.4% growth over the previous 6 months

According to conference Board senior director of economists Ataman Ozyildirim said:

“The US LEI fell again in September and its persistent downward trajectory in recent months suggests a recession is increasingly likely before yearend. The six-month growth rate of the LEI fell deeper into negative territory in September, and weaknesses among the leading indicators were widespread. Amid high inflation , slowing labor markets, rising interest rates, and tighter credit conditions, The Conference Board forecasts real GDP growth will be 1.5 percent year-over-year in 2022, before slowing further in the first half of next year.”

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