Technical Analysis

NZDUSD dips below swing lows from March and April

Lows at 0.69405 and 0.69446 broken today

The NZDUSD has continued its move to the downside over the last three days and in the process has dipped below the March swing low at 0.69405 and the April 1 swing low at 0.69446. The low price today reached 0.69223. The price is currently training 0.6936.

Last week, the price move below its 100 day moving average at 0.71729 and this time, stay below that level.  On FOMC day, the pair cracked below the recent swing lows near 0.7115 and ran lower.  The 200 day moving average was broken yesterday at 0.70332. Today, the high price stay below that moving average level (high today reached 0.7018 before rotating back to the downside).

The last time the price traded below its 200 day moving average was back at the end of May in 2020.  The break this week was significant from a technical perspective and staying below that moving average going forward is a key barometer for the bulls and the bears.

Staying on the daily chart, a swing area going back to September and November 2020 comes in between 0.6780 and 0.6799. That is a ways away, but would be the next target area should the sellers keep the control below the 200 day MA.  

Looking at the 4 hour chart below, the 0.69918 and 0.7001 level is a close risk level ahead of its 200 day moving average. Stay below it and sellers remain more in control (see red numbered circles in the chart below).

NZDUSD on the four hour chart
Sellers to control this week help by the FOMC decision on Wednesday. The price broke out of an up and down trading range that has gripped of the market since mid April. Non-trending transitions to trending and that is what we saw since the break. 
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