Technical Analysis

US crude oil settles at $80.71. Trades above 50% of move down from November high.

The price of WTI crude oil futures traded up and down in trading today. The high price reached $81.81. The low price extended to $79.61. Yesterday the price settled at $80.42.

WTI crude oil trades between the 50% and 61.8% retracement

Today the settled price is modestly higher at $80.71. That’s up $0.29 or 0.36%. Looking at the hourly chart above, the price remains between the 50% midpoint of the move down from the November high to the March low at $79.05, and the 61.8% retracement of the same move lower at $82.52. On the topside, there is other swing levels up to $82.66 and above that, the high price from December 1 reached up to $83.34. Those levels would be upside targets on more momentum going forward. Get above would be more bullish.

On the downside, if the 50% is broken, the rising 100 hour MA come in at $76.82 (it is moving up sharply). That would be eyed as support on a corrective move below the midpoint level.

The price of oil gapped higher yesterday after the OPEC+ surprise cut in production over the weekend. That move sent the price back above the $80 level. On a bigger move higher, the 200 day MA at $84.46 would be eyed. The price has not traded above the 200 day MA since the end of August 2022. The 38.2% of the move down from the 2022 high is up at $89.63. Some analysts see the price of oil settling between $70 on the downside and $90 on the upside.

What could go wrong?

Higher oil prices with the economy sitting on an edge that could push the economy into a recession (finally). That could lead to slower oil demand.

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