Technical Analysis

USDCAD tests the 200 hour MA ahead of BOC rate decision

The 200 hour MA stalls the fall. BOC decision at 10 AM

The USDCAD has moved down (with the overall dollar selling) and has reached the 200 hour MA at 1.24512. The 50% of the move up from the July 6 low comes in at 1.24458 just below that level.  

Traders have stuck a toe in the water (profit taking perhaps) ahead of those levels and also the Bank of Canada decision at 10 AM ET. The BOC is expected to tapered by 1B/week to 2B/ week. The overnight rate is expected to remain steady at 0.25%. Rates are expected to rise sometime in 2H of 2022.

The price decline was helped by comments from Chair Powell who continues to imply he will keep the pedal to the metal. 

Technically, a move below the 200 hour MA and the 50% would tilt the bias more to the downside for the pair. Earlier in the day, the price fell below the 100 hour MA (after some failed attempts) at 1.24946. It would take a move back above that level to tilt the bias more in the favor of the buyers again.

PS the runs above the 100 hour MA this week have not been successful for long. On Monday, the price moved above but could not muster much momentum and failed. Yesterday, the price moved back above the MA line, but could not reach the Friday higher and started to waffle with price action trying to stay above the 100 hour MA level. That “try” failed in the North American session – helped by Powell’s testimony.  

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