USDCHF closes the week on a bullish note, but there is work to do

Three day up streak to end the week

The USDCHF closed the week on a more bullish note. 

  • The price closed higher for the third day in a row. 
  • On Wednesday, the low for the week stalled at the lower trend line and bounced higher (bullish bounce) 
  • Also on Wednesday, the price moved back above the 200 day MA (green line) currently at 0.91574.  
  • On Thursday, the pair moved above its 100 day MA (blue line) currently at 0.91879. 

Now on Friday, the high price did stall just ahead of a swing line target at 0.92412 (see red numbered circles) and backed off (helped by the weaker Michigan consumer confidence), and retraced most of the days gains.  However, the pair did close higher and remains above the 100 day MA at 0.91879, keeping the barometer in favor of the buyers.

Into the new week, the 100 day MA (27 pips away to the downside) will be the close risk level for longs/buyers, along with the 200 day MA at 0.91574 (about 57 pips to the downside).  If a corrective move can stay above each of those levels – with the best case scenario for the buyers holding the 100 day MA – the bias would remain in the favor of the bulls/buyers. Move below and the ups and downs, shifts back to the downside with the lower trend line, the next downside target.

Conversely, the high from Friday highlights the work that needs to be done for the bulls.  Getting above 0.97412 (red numbered circles) is step one, followed by another swing level at 0.9274 (see green numbered circles).  

Getting above those levels would open the door for a potential run toward the September swing highs at 0.9332 and 0.9367.

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Technical Analysis

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