Canada lost 4,700 jobs in October, against a consensus forecast of a 13,600 gain, and the unemployment rate rose to 6.7 per cent. Statistics Canada published its Labour Force Survey at 13:30 GMT, alongside the US Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report, in which payrolls beat the consensus by 100,000. USD/CAD traded at 1.4102 at 15:56 GMT, up about 82 pips, or 0.59 per cent, from yesterday’s close of 1.4020. The move cannot be split between the two releases, as the Canadian and US jobs data crossed the wires together.
The September prior was a fall of 68,000, and no revision to it is stated. The unemployment rate rose from 6.5 per cent, against a consensus of 6.5 per cent, and is the highest since April.
Statistics Canada described the month this way:
Employment was little changed in October (-4,700; 0.0%) and the employment rate fell 0.1 percentage points to 60.5%.
Statistics Canada
The weakness was concentrated in the private sector, where employment fell by 53,000, the first fall since February. The public sector added 50,000 jobs. Wholesale and retail trade lost 29,000 jobs and full-time work fell by 18,100. Average wages for all employees rose 2.2 per cent from a year earlier.
Trade tensions with the US and business cost-cutting have kept hiring weak this year.
The US report was stronger. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 165,000 against a consensus of 65,000, and revisions added 84,000 to August and September combined. The US unemployment rate was 4.1 per cent. The Federal Reserve has held its target range at 3.75 per cent to 4.00 per cent, and after the payrolls release CME FedWatch put the probability of a December hike at about 76.8 per cent, up from 66.9 per cent yesterday.
The two reports point in different directions: the Canadian data is soft, while the US data lifts pricing for a Fed hike.
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