Brent crude pulled back from a spike above $105 on the day Trump said the US will not attack Iran before the 3 November midterms, but USD/CAD barely registered it. The pair ended yesterday at 1.4226 and was at 1.4224 at 09:39 BST today.
Hormuz traffic fell after last week’s record run of tanker attacks, and Hurricane Isaias threatened US Gulf Coast output, according to Danske Bank. Brent topped $105 yesterday, its highest in almost a month.
Trump then posted on Truth Social yesterday:
We will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the midterm elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd.
Trump, US president, Truth Social
He also said the US is having productive discussions with Iran. Danske also pointed to reports that China will resume refined fuel exports, which added to the pull-back.
Brent eases, the loonie stays put
Danske Bank said Brent was trading at the 102-103 level this morning, so part of the Hormuz risk premium has come out. USD/CAD fell about 27 pips, or 0.19 per cent, from 1.4249 at 17:30 BST to 1.4222 at 18:00 BST yesterday.
That fall ran the opposite way to the usual oil-CAD relationship, where cheaper crude tends to weigh on the Canadian dollar and lift the pair. It cannot be pinned on Trump’s post alone, and the pair held 1.4224 at midnight BST.
Today’s range of 1.4208 to 1.4233 so far is among the narrowest of the week. The pair’s weekly range is roughly 1.4202 to 1.4293, so yesterday’s 27-pip drop sat well inside it.
The muted response suggests the link from oil to the loonie looks weaker than the Hormuz headlines imply, though this morning’s session is still early.
Nothing is settled
Nothing has been agreed. Iranian state media said Tehran will not give up enrichment or hand over its stockpile, and that Trump rejected Iran’s latest offer. The war began in February 2026.
The post USD/CAD barely moved as Brent eased from Hormuz-driven spike first appeared on Forextraders.com.